Oracle Q3 Outlook: How High Can Soaring IPO Go?

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze Oracle’s projected Q3 numbers and the explosive growth of its cloud and AI infrastructure business.

Highlights

00:02 — Tomorrow, March 10, Oracle releases its Q3 numbers. I think these will be some of the most interesting we see from any of the Cloud Wars Top 10 companies, because relative to Oracle's size, its growth rates are up near the very top, and its RPO growth has been absolutely astronomical.

00:58 — So you might think of it as pipeline or backlog. This is money that's again fully contracted. It is not yet recognized as revenue, but it's an indication of where customers in the future are putting their hearts, minds, and wallets. I'll take a look at some key numbers for Oracle and compare the Q2 results with my Q3 projections.

02:02 — So for Q2, Oracle's RPO grew in Q2 over Q1 $68 billion. It had some huge deals in there with Meta and NVIDIA. It'll still do very well adding another $59 billion to its RPO. Now we look at its cloud revenue. For Q2 it was a total of $8 billion, up 34%.

03:13 — The OpenAI deal is massive, probably around $300 billion, but there's a lot more in there beyond that $300 billion. Oracle is emphasizing that it has a wide-ranging cloud infrastructure and AI infrastructure business that includes traditional moves from on-premise to cloud and other services beyond the OpenAI deal.

04:06 — Google Cloud hit almost $18 billion in its quarter. Now Oracle is almost half the size of Google Cloud, but it's got this tremendous backlog of future business because of capabilities around AI training, AI inferencing, and its core businesses as well.

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