NAB Morning Call Back from the brink, but not far back
Apr 8, 2026
Skye Masters, NAB markets economist and strategist, offers a sharp read on market moves, geopolitics and central bank implications. She breaks down the fragile relief rally after a ceasefire headline. She discusses lingering risks around the Strait of Hormuz, elevated oil prices, and why central banks may still tighten despite the temporary calm.
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Ceasefire Sparked Fragile Relief Rally
- Markets showed a sharp relief rally after President Trump's two-week ceasefire announcement.
- Nasdaq rose 2.8% while WTI briefly fell 17% to $91, but moves were fragile as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
Markets Price In Uncertain Peace Not Full Resolution
- Investors are pricing out immediate escalation but not a full resolution of the conflict.
- Skye Masters noted markets traded range bound after the initial reaction, reflecting continued uncertainty about how terms and participants align.
Oil Down But Still Well Above Prewar Levels
- Oil has fallen from immediate highs but remains far above pre-war levels.
- Brent touched just above $90 after the ceasefire yet started the year around low $60s, signalling persistent inflationary pressure from energy.