Geopolitical Cousins China Just Doesn't Care
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May 5, 2026 A brisk debate on why China stayed silent amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and whether that is strategic patience or indifference. They parse China’s stance on Iranian oil sanctions, yuan internationalization, and the limits of Beijing’s security commitments. The conversation also covers US-China summit stakes, global South implications, and why markets seem more focused on AI than geopolitical shocks.
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Trump Sees China As A Deal To Be Made
- Donald Trump views China mainly as a deal partner rather than a grand geopolitical enemy and is aiming for a summit to revive a phase-one style agreement.
- Jacob Shapiro says Trump's summit goal is to 'make a deal,' not to create a new alliance structure.
China Has Leverage Over Iran But Chooses Restraint
- China could exert pressure on Iran but often refrains because Iran is less strategically valuable than other partners like Russia or Gulf states.
- Marko Papic argues stepping in diplomatically would gain China goodwill across its Global South partners, yet Beijing stays reticent.
Don't Expect China To Act Without A Price
- Do not expect China to act without concrete compensation; Beijing practices 'strategic patience' and will wait for tangible offers.
- Jacob Shapiro warns China won't 'drive to the hoop' unless the U.S. or partners set conditions or offer concessions.