Why markets focus on AI CapEx not war

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions

(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire

(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals

(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate

(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran

(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels

(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal

(32:03) - What China Offers the World

(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom

(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment

(38:50) - China Constraints First

(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate

(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar

(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update

(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation

(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole

(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk

(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over

(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains

(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline

(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop

(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views

(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony

(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro