Forward Guidance Finding The Next Perfect Trade | Alex Gurevich
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Jan 28, 2026 Alex Gurevich, former JPMorgan global macro trading MD and author, explains his strategic framework for finding high-quality trades. He discusses regime shifts, expressing macro views across assets, precious metals, simple option uses and portfolio defense. He also covers carry, AI’s potential impact on macro trading, and high-conviction views like disinflation and Japan’s interplay of rates and policy.
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Trading Is Strategic, Not Just Analytical
- Alex Gurevich framed trading as strategy, not pure analytics, focusing on pre-trade characteristics of good trades.
- He wrote The Next Perfect Trade to codify those strategic principles and test them over a decade.
Sequence Matters: The Sword Of Necessity
- The "sword of necessity" asks what else must happen for your trade to succeed or fail, forcing a sequence-based view.
- That reframes risk parity and shows why simultaneous stock and bond sell-offs broke old paradigms in 2022.
Position For Both Liquidity Regimes
- Define two regime-plausibilities (high vs low liquidity) and pick assets that work in either case to reduce timing risk.
- Hold offsetting positions, take profits on winners, and let lagging positions run for later payoffs.
