War on the Rocks How We Arrived at this Iranian Moment and What Happens Next
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Feb 5, 2026 
Naysan Rafati, Senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, maps Tehran’s security and domestic strains. Holly Dagres, Iran specialist and Substack curator, traces protest history and social drivers. Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute fellow, assesses regional fallout and strategic choices. They discuss protest scale, foreign intervention risks, governance failures, environmental stresses, and U.S. policy options.
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Nationwide Grievances Drive New Protests
- Iran's protest cycles repeat but recent waves show deeper, nationwide anger beyond Tehran's middle class.
- Protesters cite systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression as enduring drivers of unrest.
Scale And Bloodshed Make Foreign-Plot Claims Unconvincing
- The regime's repression has grown bloodier and protests now reach small towns previously apolitical.
- Alex Vatanka argues mass mourning and local losses make foreign-plot claims implausible.
Foreign Intervention Threat Changed Protest Calculus
- This protest wave uniquely coincided with explicit foreign intervention threats, changing protesters' expectations.
- Naysan Rafati says Trump's early promises altered the domestic calculus and raised hopes of outside help.