Bankless Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau
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Mar 11, 2026 
Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report and crypto cycle analyst, breaks down where ETH sits in the market cycle. He discusses whether ETH skipped a cycle, how the L2 roadmap may have improved UX while hurting short-term value capture, and which valuation signals (MVRV, supply in profit, 200-week MA) point to a fair value zone. Short, sharp, and focused on valuation and macro positioning.
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ETH's Diminishing Cycle Returns
- ETH's cycle returns have sharply diminished across three cycles, from 175x (2017) to 61x (2021) to ~5.6x (2025).
- Michael Nadeau frames this as either a skipped cycle or structural change tied to roadmap and market dynamics.
L2 Roadmap Weakened ETH Value Capture
- The L2 roadmap improved UX and scalability but reduced on‑chain fee capture at L1, weakening short‑term value accrual to ETH.
- Nadeau calls this Ethereum 'disrupting itself' by making the product better for L2 users while hurting ETH's near‑term economics.
Why ETH Valuation Models Disagree Wildly
- Three valuation lenses conflict: monetary/store‑of‑value, fee/cash‑flow (price‑to‑sales), and network/TVL multiples.
- That explains extreme model outputs (e.g., $2 from fees vs $24,000 from MV=PQ) and market uncertainty.