Ethereum underperformed this cycle, and investors are asking the big question: did ETH just skip a cycle, or is something deeper going on? Michael Nadeau joins Ryan to break down where Ethereum sits in the market cycle today, why several of his key indicators suggest ETH is entering a fair value zone, and whether the true macro bottom could still lie ahead.
They also unpack why ETH struggled despite improving fundamentals. Mike explains how Ethereum’s L2 roadmap may have improved the network while weakening short-term value capture for the asset itself, and what signals he’s watching (MVRV, supply in profit, the 200-week moving average) as he looks for the next expansion phase.
Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:
https://x.com/JustDeauIt
https://thedefireport.io/
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:50 The History of ETH Cycles
5:41 Analyzing Performance Trends
8:32 The Impact of L2 Roadmap
10:24 Roadmap Decisions & Market Perception
15:50 Valuation Metrics Explained
20:08 Disparities in Valuation Methods
23:22 Navigating Market Conditions
26:14 Nation-State Metaphor & Valuation
27:45 Revenue and Economic Impact
33:42 DEX Volumes & Their Implications
37:25 Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum
38:09 Cycle Metrics & Analysis
44:22 Fair Market Value Insights
50:40 Evaluating ETH for the Portfolio
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