In this discussion, Olga Bitel, a global strategist at William Blair, shares insights from her innovative "Perpetual Growth Machine" framework. She highlights how solving problems drives growth and warns that monopolies can stifle innovation. The conversation covers the massive potential of AI, challenges of housing affordability, and the dynamics of Europe’s defense investments. Bitel emphasizes that U.S. exceptionalism is fading, suggesting that the most lucrative opportunities may now lie beyond American markets.
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Don't Expect The Fed To Fix Structural Issues
Recognize the Fed's power is strong but narrow and can't fix structural issues like zoning or competition.
Avoid blaming monetary policy alone for outcomes driven by broader regulatory and fiscal choices.
insights INSIGHT
Tariffs Are A Regressive Tax On Consumers
Tariffs act as a regressive tax, reduce consumer choice, and insulate domestic producers from competition.
Over time tariffs depress innovation and typically pass costs onto consumers through higher prices or lower quality.
insights INSIGHT
Tariffs Already Raising Goods Inflation
Evidence already shows non-energy goods contributing to U.S. inflation after tariff changes.
Much of the tariff pass-through to consumers may still be forthcoming across quarters and years.
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In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.
Topics covered
The Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it early
Why monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovation
AI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savings
Housing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lens
How firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadence
Europe’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovators
Interpreting market concentration and what it signals about competition
Inflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limits
Tariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over time
US exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycle
The Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single market
Comparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may be
Growth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness alone
Using stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock work
Biggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle East
Biggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensions
Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair 02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained 06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth 09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math 11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms 15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now 16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners 19:02 Macro setup and consumer health 20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood 22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy 25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up 28:55 Early evidence in goods prices 29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world 31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market 33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech? 36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment 37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US 39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle 41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy 42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens 44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top 49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research 51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives 52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions 53:00 Middle East changes and new listings 54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions 55:36 Parting advice for investors
Excess Returns