The Dividend Cafe Monday - March 9, 2026
Mar 9, 2026
Markets whipped back and forth on news from the Iran military operation, producing huge intraday swings and an oil spike that quickly reversed. The show covers how short-term trading, hedging, and backwardation in oil and VIX drive volatility. It also highlights shipping and insurance risks in the Strait, debate over targeting oil infrastructure, policy dangers if oil soars, and a shocking jobs report that unsettled markets.
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Oil Spikes Trigger Violent Equity Reversals
- Oil and equities are currently inversely correlated in volatile ways tied to newsflow about the Iran operation.
- Bahnsen recounted WTI spiking to about $115 then falling to ~$83 after presidential comments that the war might be nearly over, causing rapid market reversals.
Stand Pat Instead Of Trading The Noise
- Avoid trying to trade or front-run these short-term swings and don't react to transient headlines.
- David L. Bahnsen warned that hedging, unhedging, and speculation create noise and told investors to 'stand there' rather than doing something rash.
Modest Weekly Declines Mask Limited Breadth Damage
- Despite headline volatility, weekly market declines were modest and breadth wasn't extreme.
- Bahnsen noted the S&P fell ~2%, Dow ~3%, and breadth at worst was about 3–3.5 decliners per advancer, far from 8–10:1 sell-off days.