Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s
The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday.
00:00 Volatility Backdrop
00:54 Wild Market Reversal
01:47 Oil Spike Explained
04:10 Ignore The Noise
04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth
06:18 Backwardation Signals
07:42 War Timeline Shipping
09:57 Policy Risks Oil
10:42 Jobs Report Shock
12:33 Energy CPI Outlook
13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
