FDD Morning Brief FDD Morning Brief SITREP | A wounded regime and the U.S.-Israel alliance
Mar 4, 2026
Cameron McMillan, military analyst specializing in strike campaigns and missile threats, and Janatan Sayeh, Iran watcher focused on succession and regime behavior, break down recent operations. They discuss targeting Tehran’s repression infrastructure and Kurdish-region strikes. They cover U.S.-Israel air integration and the race to find mobile missile launchers. They examine risks of arming peripheral militias and Iran’s shift to proxies.
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Succession Choice Shows Regime Opting For Escalation
- Iran's succession choice signals escalation not compromise.
- Janatan Sayeh notes Moshtaba's elevation shows IRGC influence and a preference for an extremist cleric to continue his father's hardline path.
Israel Leading Strikes Against Repression Infrastructure
- Israel appears to lead targeted strikes in Tehran focused on repression sites.
- Sayeh highlights strikes collapsing buildings tied to Iran's repression apparatus and growing operations in Kurdish western areas.
Do Not Weaponize Ethnic Minorities Against The Regime
- Avoid empowering narrow ethnic militias as a substitute for nationwide Iranian opposition.
- Sayeh warns arming Kurdish or other minority factions risks alienating pro-democracy Persian majorities and hands the IRGC a unifying propaganda line.