#117 Why Your Forecast Is Inaccurate (+ How to Fix It) – with Andy Smidmore, RevOps Leader (ex-Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, Ditto)

May 11, 2026

Andy Smidmore, a 15-year RevOps and SalesOps leader from Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, and Ditto, shares his practical RevOps perspective. He argues forecasting is a trust problem before a math problem. Short takes cover why misaligned stages leak accuracy, why deal reviews should be separate from forecasts, and what clear commit criteria and consistent cadence do for honest reporting.

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ANECDOTE

Andy’s RevOps Journey Through High Growth SaaS

Andy Smidmore started in RevOps with an accounting/bookkeeping background and learned on the job across multiple West Coast growth SaaS companies.
He moved through Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, and Ditto, which shaped his forecasting perspective.

INSIGHT

Forecasting Is A Trust Problem Not A Math Problem

Forecasting fails when leaders treat the weekly number as the product rather than the output of a process.
Andy Smidmore argues trust in inputs (stages, hygiene, cadence) matters more than fancy math or AI for accurate forecasts.

INSIGHT

Sales Stages Must Mirror The Buyer Journey

Misaligned sales stages leak forecast accuracy because reps progress deals for optics not evidence.
Andy says stages should map to the buyer journey so passing a stage carries verifiable signals like technical sign-off or business alignment.

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In this episode of the RevOps Lab, Janis sits down with Andy Smidmore — a 15-year RevOps and SalesOps veteran whose résumé reads like a tour of high-growth West Coast SaaS (Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, most recently Ditto). Andy is also the author of a popular LinkedIn article series on RevOps fundamentals, including the piece that anchors today's conversation: Forecasting Is a Trust Problem Before a Math Problem. Janis and Andy unpack why the magic forecast number leadership wants is just the surface, why broken sales stages quietly leak forecast accuracy, and why mixing deal reviews into your forecast call destroys the very trust your reps need to be honest with you.

We cover:

Why forecasting is a trust problem first, a math problem second
Why the "how much are you committing?" question on day one of a forecast call is the wrong starting point
Building sales stages around the buyer's journey, not your selling process — and why misaligned stages are a leaking bucket
The danger of performative deal progression and the false hope it creates for leadership
Why deal reviews and forecast calls should be two separate motions
"I'm not questioning you, I'm asking questions" — the subtle reframe that changes the whole room
Crystal-clear definitions for pipeline vs. commit, kept short (5 bullets, not essays)
What a true commit actually requires: technical sign-off, legal redlines, procurement engaged, stakeholder alignment
Why a consistent week-in, week-out forecast format builds rep trust over time
Treating forecasting as a team sport — and why punishing reps swings them toward concealment, not honesty

Links:

Andy Smidmore on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andy-smidmore-3aab0556
Andy's article series on RevOps & forecasting (LinkedIn)
Janis Zech on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janiszech/
Philipp Stelzer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philippstelzer/
WeFlow: https://www.weflow.ai/
Join the RevOps Chat Community: https://www.weflow.ai/community
Subscribe to the RevOps Letter: https://www.weflow.ai/revops-letter
Book recommendations:

Disrupted by Dan Lyons
The Girl with Seven Names by Hyeonseo Lee

Chapters:

(00:00) Intro & welcome to Andy
(00:51) Andy's 15-year journey through Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, Ditto
(03:08) Why forecasting is the topic — and the article that started it
(04:03) Why every forecast framework is unique to its company
(06:15) Intelligence tools haven't replaced the foundational framework
(08:13) "How much are you committing?" — the surface-level forecast call
(10:01) The top forecast process problems Andy keeps seeing
(11:33) Sales stages built around the buyer journey, not the seller
(12:24) The POC stage problem: what does "done" actually mean?
(14:25) When poor stage definitions destroy trust between reps and leadership
(15:43) Creating an open, honest forecast call environment
(18:17) From gut-based reviews to data-backed conversations
(20:22) Why deal reviews and forecast calls must be separate motions
(23:25) "I'm not questioning you, I'm asking questions"
(25:00) The cadence: clean pipeline Thursday, deal review Friday, forecast Monday
(28:32) Building a clear forecasting methodology — pipeline vs. commit
(31:34) What actually constitutes a commit deal
(35:21) Closing thoughts: stages, enablement, cadence, culture
(39:35) Book recommendations & close