Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Say Could Come Next

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Oct 8, 2025

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, shares her expertise in technical analysis. She decodes the S&P 500's current strong uptrend and discusses new DeMark sell signals, indicating potential market consolidation. Katie emphasizes selectivity in investing, particularly in healthcare and utilities, while analyzing the implications of seasonality and market breadth. She also explores trends in gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the evolving correlation between bonds and equities, offering valuable insights for navigating year-end investments.

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INSIGHT

Staples And Energy As Defensive Optionality

Consumer staples lack a strong relative turnaround but can act defensively if a market correction occurs.
Staples and energy historically outperform during downside tape, offering optionality for risk-off shifts.

INSIGHT

Financials Lost Relative Momentum

Financials show absolute strength but recent relative breakdown versus the S&P requires honoring the loss before adding exposure.
Sector underperformance may relate to yields or a few heavyweight stocks pulling back.

ADVICE

TAC Uses Dynamic Equity And Asset Allocation

TAC maintains tactical sector exposure and can shift to non-equity holdings to manage drawdowns.
Monitor TAC's benchmark (Russell 1000 Equal Weight) and its default underweight to tech when assessing fit.

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Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.

Main topics covered:
• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum
• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process
• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction
• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase
• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples
• Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations
• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning
• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration
• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar
• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving
• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup
04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators
07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages
10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals
12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market
15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq
18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade
20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation
23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy
25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups
27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning
29:00 Financials and recent weakness
31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy
34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration
37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals
41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels
43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis
46:20 The dollar index and its key levels
48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds
51:10 Final takeaways and closing