One Decision IRAN: Trump's next target?
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Jan 29, 2026 Richard Fontaine, foreign policy analyst and CEO of the Center for a New American Security, explains why a US strike on Iran now looks increasingly possible. He discusses carrier buildups in the Middle East. He compares a Venezuela-style playbook to potential Iran action. He outlines how China’s moves and Xi’s military shakeup reshape global security.
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Global Uncertainty Over US Intentions
- Richard Fontaine says recent US actions have left the world uncertain about American intentions and willingness to do the unthinkable.
- Countries are hedging by seeking other partners to insulate themselves politically, economically and security-wise.
Military Posture Shapes Iran Options
- Fontaine judges Trump was close to using force in Iran but lacked sufficient military posture and allied concurrence at the time.
- He warns that increased US forces in the region now makes a strike "likelier than not."
Bombing Won't Guarantee Regime Change
- Fontaine says bombing can be done but achieving regime change by airpower alone is improbable given Iran's resilience since 1979.
- He rates regime survival through 2026 as likelier than not despite unrest and potential US action.