The Jacob Shapiro Podcast The Cold War That Wasn’t
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Feb 18, 2026 
Louis‑Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Research and macro‑geopolitical analyst, outlines a world quietly reordering itself. He discusses a surprising U.S.–China thaw and why a full Cold War would be economically disastrous. He highlights Latin America and Canada as breakout investment stories, Europe’s military limits, and how energy prices and rare earths could upend markets.
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Xi Values Stability Over Confrontation
- Xi prioritizes social stability above confrontation because of historical trauma and domestic fragility.
- Mending ties with the U.S. helps restore domestic confidence and supports stability in China.
Xi's Third Purge Targets His Own Men
- Xi's latest purge is the third major purge and appears to target even his own appointees.
- Louis‑Vincent Gave suggests the purge likely reflects an anti‑corruption audit triggered by concerns raised by Russia's Ukraine experience.
Investment Over Isolation As Next Step
- Rapprochement between Washington and Beijing is already unfolding through diplomatic meetings and potential Chinese investments in the U.S.
- The next practical step is Chinese firms opening factories in America to signal cooperation and jobs.