Durability and Causes of 2025 Shifts

Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)

(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks

(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains After 2018

(07:40) - Trump as Accelerant

(09:31) - Why a US–China Cold War Is Economically Suicidal

(11:50) - Drones Change War

(13:47) - The ‘Swamp’ Factor

(18:27) - Defense Supply Chains & Rare Earth Dependence

(21:19) - Xi’s Priorities

(25:47) - Xi’s Security, PLA Purges, and Corruption Crackdowns

(31:17) - Xi’s Army Purge

(32:37) - US-China Rapprochement

(34:36) - Who Wins if the Cold War Ends?

(35:58) - Why Latin America Looks Like the Breakout Trade

(40:24) - Mexico Risks

(42:24) - Bullish Canada

(44:37) - Does USMCA Survive?

(47:31) - No Army, No Foreign Policy

(51:00) - Can Europe Rebuild Real Military Power?

(53:27) - Ukraine Endgame

(56:23) - What Keeps Louis Up at Night

(01:00:32) - Bitcoin vs Diversification

(01:01:30) - Closing Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Louis-Vincent Gave - https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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