The Case Against the China Consensus, with Jessica Chen Weiss of SAIS

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Sep 26, 2024

Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS, challenges the prevailing 'China Consensus' in her conversation. She advocates for a less confrontational approach, emphasizing the need for credible deterrence while also pursuing constructive engagement. Weiss discusses diverging views between political parties on U.S.-China relations, especially regarding Taiwan, and stresses the importance of realism in diplomacy. Her fresh perspective could reshape future U.S. policy towards China, promoting coexistence over confrontation.

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INSIGHT

Acknowledging Limits

China already leads in sectors like solar, EVs, and batteries.
The U.S. should acknowledge these realities instead of clinging to an idea of total primacy.

ANECDOTE

Eroding Assurances

Trump's unconditional support for Taiwan and some officials' calls for recognizing Taiwan's independence erode U.S. assurances.
This inconsistency creates fear in Beijing about a shift in the U.S. position on cross-strait issues.

INSIGHT

Integration as Deterrent

Economic integration deters Chinese aggression by highlighting the costs of conflict.
Cutting off economic ties preemptively removes these costs and might make conflict more likely.

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This week on Sinica, I chat with Jessica Chen Weiss, until recently at Cornell University but now the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, SAIS, in Washington D.C. Jessica, to those of you familiar with her work, has been at the forefront of the fight for a less strident, diplomacy-first approach to China, balancing threats with assurances to find a modus vivendi with China. She has challenged prevailing notions about China's intentions, and has called for the U.S. to advance an affirmative vision of how it wants to live in the world with China. We focus in this conversation about a recent piece in Foreign Affairs in which she challenges both the solidity and the logic of the "bipartisan consensus" on China, and holds out hope that a next administration might approach the relationship differently.

3:45 – How Jessica has settled into D.C.; her professorial namesake; and how she has become a leading voice for a less confrontational approach to China

9:30 – Where Jessica sees diverging views on China in the Republican and Democratic Parties

12:41 – What a more durable basis for coexistence should look like

14:46 – Credible deterrence and strategic ambiguity in the context of Taiwan

16:03 – Acknowledgements to limits on American power and the importance of being realistic

18:09 – Assurances on Taiwan and what threatens their credibility

21:13 – The question of engagement and the deterrent effect of economic integration

25:30 – How the U.S. can combat legitimate national security threats from China without undermining its own values, and the importance of not treating the Chinese in diaspora as a fifth column

31:31 – Electoral politics: the importance of welcoming and inclusive policies and creating space for debate and discernment

35:07 – The importance of testing our assumptions

38:30 – What another Trump presidency might look like

40:30 – How a Harris administration might differ from the Biden administration

44:13 – The U.S. and China-Russia relations

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