Global Data Pod Global Data Watch Weekender: Start me up
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Feb 20, 2026 Joseph Lupton, economist at J.P. Morgan known for macro and labor-market analysis. They unpack solid global momentum and noisy data. They debate why resilient growth and sticky inflation make big Fed cuts unlikely. Labor market signals, a manufacturing and capex rotation, inventory rebuilds, and political/legal limits on trade policy are explored.
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Balanced Global Growth Reduces Fed Easing Odds
- Global growth looks solid and more balanced heading into 2026, with labor markets aligning better with GDP.
- This reduces the likelihood of meaningful Fed easing unless there is a major shock to the outlook.
Markets Misprice Fed Cut Expectations
- Market pricing for multiple Fed cuts in 2026 is likely mispriced given firm core inflation and tightening labor signals.
- Recent data and Fed minutes show two-sided risks and make large rate cuts increasingly untenable.
Global PMI Rotation From US To Rest Of World
- A rotation is occurring: rest-of-world PMIs are strengthening while US PMIs have softened from very high levels.
- This suggests growth breadth is improving outside the US even as the US rebalances between consumer and business spending.