The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined with elevated inflation make market pricing for Fed cuts in 2H26 increasingly untenable.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2026.
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