The Pie: An Economics Podcast Who Really Paid for the Tariffs? Brent Neiman on Liberation Day's Economic Aftermath
Feb 3, 2026
Brent Neiman, a University of Chicago economist and former Treasury official, discusses his research on the 2025 tariffs. He explains why realized tariffs were much lower than announced. He shows that U.S. importers shouldered most costs. He highlights China’s sharp drop as a U.S. supplier and explores potential retaliation and lasting diplomatic fallout.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Research Cited But Not Used As Intended
- Neiman was surprised the announced reciprocal tariffs were much larger and broader than he expected and that his research was cited in the calculations.
- He felt his work was misapplied, noting the administration didn't use his output the way he thought it should be used.
Statutory Tariffs Were Much Bigger Than The Revenue Collected
- The announced statutory tariff rates averaged ~27% but the actual tariff collected was about half that due to exemptions, delays, and shipping lags.
- Brent Neiman measured transactions by exporter-good-month and found many instances where identical shipments paid 0% while some paid the full statutory rate, yielding ~14% effective rate.
Transaction Data Reveals Effective Tariff Rates
- Measuring actual tariffs requires transaction‑level data because shipping timing, classification, and on‑the‑spot exemptions make statutory rates misleading.
- Neiman compared identical shipments across ports and classifications to compute average effective rates.