Looking ahead: persistence and political consequences

Who bore the cost of 2025's sweeping tariffs? UChicago economist Brent Neiman returns to The Pie to discuss his new research with co-author Gita Gopinath examining the effects of last year's tariffs. Neiman reveals a gap between statutory rates and what was actually collected, explains why US importers absorbed the vast majority of costs, and discusses China's dramatic collapse as a US trading partner. He also explores the longer-term implications, including potential retaliation, shifting global alliances, and diplomatic costs that may outlast any short-term revenue gains.