Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Inflation Rundown
Aug 15, 2025
Join Matt Colyar, a colleague with insights in economics, as he unpacks July’s consumer price index. They argue that while the CPI results weren't entirely surprising, they signal underlying concerns. The team explores how tariffs on Japanese cars impact U.S. pricing and sheds light on the subtle shifts in consumer spending amid inflation. They touch on retail sales trends, the challenges of outdated labor market reporting, and the potential solutions for elevated mortgage rates, all while engaging with listener questions for an entertaining discussion.
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High CPI Imputations Raise Uncertainty
- Imputations in CPI rose sharply because BLS staffing fell, raising uncertainty in monthly estimates.
- Imputed items were about 32% in July, up from typical ~10–12% historically.
Supplement Official Price Data
- Moody's will build alternative price measures to verify official data amid BLS issues.
- Do supplement government series with independent price collection to improve reliability.
Retail Sales Weaker Year-To-Date
- Retail sales rose in July but growth this year is much weaker than last year, up just 2.1% annualized year-to-date.
- The July gain was largely driven by autos, masking softness across many retail categories.