UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Expected, with limited conviction'
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Mar 10, 2026 Discussion of Trump’s ‘very complete’ Iran comment and why markets were skeptical. Analysis of oil price dynamics and how energy pressure could influence conflict exit incentives. Review of China’s stronger-than-expected trade figures and their implications for growth and summit tensions. Examination of weak German trade and doubts about onshoring effectiveness. Quick note on US gasoline and small business data to watch.
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Markets Expected A Quick Deescalation
- Markets expected President Trump's statement that the war with Iran was "very complete, pretty much" because his policy positions often reverse.
- That expectation limited market conviction, so asset moves were positive but cautious without confirmation from other officials.
Single Statements Are Not Policy Confirmation
- Lack of confirmation from other administration officials tempered the market rally and made investors wary of relying on Trump's words alone.
- Donovan notes the US hasn't implemented other promised measures, like 15% tariffs, so markets discount single statements.
Oil Prices Push Toward Deescalation
- Economic incentives, like Trump's desire to lower oil prices, will likely push the administration to end the conflict sooner.
- Higher fuel costs create pressure for a quicker exit because prolonged hostilities widen economic damage.