NAB Morning Call The Phantom Toll Booth
Apr 9, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior markets economist specializing in oil, FX and inflation. He unpacks volatile oil markets as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. He explains Iran’s ceasefire demands, including uranium rights and a proposed toll on passage. He also flags a worrying U.S. divergence: rising core PCE inflation alongside falling real consumer spending.
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Markets Are Betting On A Near-Term Political Off-Ramp
- Markets are pricing in an improving outlook despite ongoing tensions, with oil volatility and a softer US dollar lifting risk assets.
- Phil Dobby highlights WTI jumping then fading near USD 99.50 and the AUD rising to ~70.8 US cents as examples of that reaction.
Ceasefire Terms Favor Iran And Leave Strait Closed
- The proposed Iran-backed ceasefire is highly one-sided, demanding continued uranium enrichment, payment for Strait of Hormuz passage, and US withdrawal.
- Rodrigo Catril notes only Iranian-linked vessels are moving and the strait remains effectively closed, keeping oil supply risk elevated.
Monitor Strait Traffic And Pakistan Talks Closely
- Watch vessel transits and Pakistan talks over the next two weeks to gauge whether oil supply risks ease and markets should calm.
- Rodrigo advises markets will grow nervous if the Strait still shows minimal traffic in a week's time.
