Reasonably Optimistic What prediction markets tell us about the future
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May 13, 2026 
Robin Hanson, economist and George Mason professor known for pioneering prediction and decision markets. He explains what prediction markets are and why odds can beat polls. They explore decision markets beside policy choices, risks like manipulation and insider trading, and practical hurdles to wider adoption. Hanson sketches a future where markets help make better collective decisions.
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Real Bets Produced Big Payoffs Recently
- Polymarket traders won large sums on timely geopolitical bets like a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Biden pardons.
- Hanson and Megan cite real trades that show markets can move on high-stakes, specific events.
Insider Trading Is A Tradeoff Not A Dealbreaker
- Insider trading is a trade-off between price accuracy and trading volume, and markets often tolerate insider-driven moves.
- Hanson argues accuracy should be prioritized and that secrecy has social value but can be balanced by contracts and norms.
Manipulation Can Make Prices More Accurate
- Attempts to manipulate market prices can improve accuracy because manipulators act like uninformed 'sheep' that attract informed 'wolves'.
- Hanson explains lab and theoretical results where manipulation draws informed traders who correct prices.