Trader behavior: overconfidence and losses

Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.

Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.

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