Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl NATO Information Warfare Chief: Russia's Plan to Defeat Europe Without Firing a Shot | Janis Sarts
Apr 6, 2026
Janis Sarts, director of NATO’s Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence and expert on information and cognitive warfare. He explains Russia’s long game to win hearts and minds across Europe and the Global South. Short segments cover how information warfare changes behavior, why Russia often succeeds, case studies like Moldova and Romania, and what effective pushback might require.
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Information Operations Can Replace Kinetic Force
- Information operations aim to change adversary behavior without kinetic force.
- Janis Sarts uses Crimea as an example where narrative primed events, with kinetic action following to seize advantage.
We Can't Scientifically Measure Cognitive Warfare Impact
- Measuring cause-effect in cognitive warfare remains unresolved, complicating assessments of success.
- Sarts says we can count attempts and resources, and identifies Russian aims: demoralize Ukraine and undermine Western support.
Russia Exploits Preexisting Social Fault Lines
- Western social fractures and algorithms create vulnerabilities external actors exploit.
- Sarts stresses Russia piggybacks on existing divisions and that effect sizes vary by country and issue.