The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head

169 snips

Mar 1, 2026

A fast-paced discussion of the US‑Israel strike and why killing Iran's leader may not upend the regime. They trace historical limits of regime change and the risks of drone warfare and maritime disruption. The conversation covers Gulf politics, oil market shocks, multipolar strategic shifts, and the real chance of civil fracture across Eurasia.

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INSIGHT

Missed January Window Reduced Revolution Odds

Timing matters: striking during the January protests might have increased the chance of revolutionary change, but delayed action reduced that opportunity.
Jacob argues the regime used months to prepare, making a January-style intervention (without Israeli involvement) the more plausible path to upheaval.

ANECDOTE

Libya Shows Repression Can Stabilize Fragile Order

Marko recalls Libya's collapse after Gaddafi's removal as an example of useful repression turning into chaos post-regime change.
He highlights Gaddafi's role in controlling migration and how his removal led to instability and fragmented authority.

INSIGHT

Market Impact Follows Perception Of Hormuz Risk

Closing or effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz has outsized symbolic and market effects even if physical closure is partial.
Marko notes shipping avoidance, insurance hikes, and GPS spoofing have functionally reduced transit despite Iranian denials.

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