Civil War Risk and Regional Cascade

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe.

History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand."

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Timestamps:

(01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week

(02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War

(04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check

(10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout

(12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets

(13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock

(19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk

(22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration

(25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It

(33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat

(35:01) - Multipolar Message To World

(38:58) - Unipolar Limits

(40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race

(41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century

(44:24) - Is It About China

(47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal

(49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall

(51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic

(53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent

(55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk

(01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate

(01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings

(01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions

(01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy

(01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro