PassivePockets: The Passive Real Estate Investing Show Scott Trench's 2026 Office Thesis with J Scott & Ash Patel
12 snips
Mar 10, 2026 
Scott Trench, contrarian investor proposing buying select high-quality office assets at steep discounts with long stabilization timelines. J Scott, macro-focused commentator who stresses AI and capital-structure risks. Ash Patel, hands-on office operator who executes suburban small-office plays and condo-style dispositions. They debate mispriced office markets, which product types win, financing constraints, and practical suburban playbooks.
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Downtown Trophy Office May Be Deeply Mispriced
- Scott argues many downtown class A office buildings are being priced at 5–30% of replacement cost, creating a potential mispricing opportunity.
- He cautions these buys require all-cash, large TI reserves, and years of patient lease-up to realize outsized IRRs.
Prefer Cash Flowing Suburban Office Over Downtown Bargains
- Ash advises avoid downtown office for many investors and focus on suburban properties that trade at smaller discounts but cash flow now.
- He notes central business district prices fell ~43% while suburban office fell much less, offering immediate income and lower risk.
AI Is A Third Wildcard For Office Demand
- J Scott raises AI as a third wildcard that could further reduce office demand beyond COVID effects.
- He warns investors must consider not just recovery or stability but the risk of materially lower long-term demand from automation.