AI as a Wild Card for Office Demand

Scott Trench brings a contrarian 2026 office thesis to the table, starting with the idea first, then stress-testing it with three expert investors: Ash Patel, J Scott, and host Chris Lopez. The group debates where office is truly mispriced, what “trophy” means post-COVID, and why “downtown vs. suburbs” might be the wrong framing without understanding tenant demand, floor plates, and lease-up realities.

They dig into the mechanics of making office work (cash-flowing vs. vacant assets, tenant improvements, buildouts, leasing risk, and financing constraints), plus the biggest wild cards shaping demand going forward, from work-from-home to AI to local policy and migration trends. Ash also shares a real-world case study on buying fragmented suburban office at a deep discount and selling it off in smaller pieces.

By the end, Scott refines his thesis from a binary bet into a spectrum: office may be a compelling buy if you’re surgical on asset selection, capitalization, and operator expertise and realistic about how long the grind to stabilization can take.

Key Takeaways

Downtown vs. suburban office: why pricing, tenant demand, and commute behavior can lead to very different risk profiles

What actually wins in office now: smaller suites, turnkey space, parking, “soul”/amenities, and flexible layouts vs. big single-tenant floorplates

Capital stack reality: why office financing is still tough, and why many plays require low leverage (or all-cash) plus significant TI reserves

Operator selection: how to vet office sponsors when COVID disrupted track records—and why experience managing office matters more than ever

One actionable strategy: buying multi-building suburban office portfolios at a discount and selling off smaller buildings to owner-users (with SBA tailwinds)

Disclaimer

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk. Nothing here is investment, tax, legal, or financial advice; consult qualified professionals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may include paid advertisements or promotional materials and should not be interpreted as a recommendation or endorsement by PassivePockets, LLC or affiliates. Conduct your own due diligence and consider your financial situation before engaging with any offering discussed. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on the information presented.