A Fertilizer Crisis is Brewing (Quickly) | StoneX’s Josh Linville on How Iran War & Strait of Hormuz Closure Has Shut of Critical Fertilizer Chemical Feedstocks That Threaten Global Grain Supply

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Mar 22, 2026

Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX and fertilizer market analyst, explains how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure have removed massive nitrogen exports. He outlines soaring urea prices, lost production equivalent to nearly the U.S. corn crop’s needs, and why repairs could take years. Shortages, tighter stockpiles, and shipping risks may force dramatic planting and pricing shifts worldwide.

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INSIGHT

This Crisis Is Worse Than 2022 Because Grain Prices Aren't Helping

2026's fertilizer shock differs from 2022 because grain prices are not providing offsetting revenue.
In 2022 high grain prices cushioned farmers; today farmers are largely 'bleeding red' so fertilizer pain hits margins harder.

INSIGHT

High Fertilizer Costs Can Cause Permanent Yield Loss This Season

High fertilizer costs can force farmers to reduce acreage or under-apply inputs, lowering yields.
Linville warns planting windows are time-sensitive; missed fertilizer timing for a season cannot be recovered.

INSIGHT

Regionally Different Risks Mean Uneven Fertilizer Impacts

Regional economics vary: Europe faces high gas-driven production costs; North America has cheap gas but limited plant capacity.
Linville highlights Egypt, North Africa and Europe as vulnerable due to disrupted gas feeds.

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Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

https://teucrium.com/corn

In this episode of Monetary Matters, StoneX Vice President Josh Linville explains how the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global fertilizer crisis that is currently crippling agricultural economics. With urea prices effectively doubling in just a few months, Josh warns that the market is facing a supply shock far more severe than the 2022 crisis because current grain prices aren't high enough to offset these surging input costs. The geopolitical bottleneck in the Persian Gulf has effectively sidelined three of the world's top ten urea exporters, removing enough nitrogen from the market to cover nearly the entire US corn crop. Beyond shipping delays, recent attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Iran have caused structural damage that experts estimate could take three to five years to fully repair. This massive loss of production capacity, combined with a lack of global stockpiles, means the market must now find balance through aggressive demand destruction. Consequently, the price floor for critical fertilizers has likely been raised for the remainder of 2026, forcing farmers to make difficult choices about planting and yields. Join us as we explore the long-term implications for global food security and why the current "bleeding red" financial state of farming might lead to higher agricultural commodity prices. Recorded March 20, 2026.

Follow Josh Linville https://www.stonex.com/en/market-experts/josh-linville/

Josh Linville on X https://x.com/JLinvilleFert

Josh Linville on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-linville-9555a711

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This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today.

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This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds, which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading, LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT.

PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC.

Sources

• Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports.

• Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary.

• Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).

Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.

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