NAB Morning Call About Turn on Risk
Feb 23, 2026
Ray Attrill, senior markets strategist at NAB known for FX and global macro analysis, breaks down a recent risk-off swing. They cover safe-haven flows in stocks, bonds and currencies. They unpack a Supreme Court trade ruling, AI-driven volatility in software names, shifting Fed job expectations, and China and Europe surprises as markets return from Lunar New Year.
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Classic Risk Off Driven By Tariffs And AI
- Global markets shifted to a classic risk-off mode with bonds and safe-haven currencies rallying while equities fell.
- Ray Attrill notes this was driven by tariff uncertainty plus AI concerns, with defensive sectors outperforming and software hit hardest.
Supreme Court Ruling Replaced One Uncertainty With Another
- The US Supreme Court ruling removed one uncertainty but created another about future trade policy and a 150-day tariff window.
- Ray Attrill warns investors now face renewed uncertainty over what happens after the 150-day period on the 15% baseline tariff.
AI Story Amplifies Software Sector Weakness
- Software and AI-linked stocks suffered steep falls, with the iShares expanded tech software ETF down about 5% on the day and over 27% year-to-date.
- Ray Attrill links this to investor concerns ahead of big AI-related earnings like NVIDIA and Salesforce.