Monetary Matters with Jack Farley “Not Until May” The Real Timeline for Controlling the Strait of Hormuz | Nadia Martin Wiggen Svelland Capital
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Mar 23, 2026 
Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director at Svelland Capital and commodities/shipping markets specialist, outlines why May is the real timeline for securing the Strait of Hormuz. She discusses diverted oil routes, Asia’s scramble for cargoes, refined product hoarding and tight refining margins. Nadia also covers military constraints, shipping and insurance signals, and which regions and fuels are most vulnerable.
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May Loading Is The Real Market Clock
- May-loading barrels became the critical physical benchmark, with Dubai/Oman pricing spiking to around $166 while paper Brent briefly dipped after headlines.
- Nadia emphasizes that physical term flows to Asia and long sail times mean paper-market signals can diverge dramatically from actual May loading availability.
Asia Rerouted To US Gulf For Heavy Sour Substitutes
- Asian refiners rerouted term cargoes to the US Gulf, West Africa and North Sea, accepting 20–30 day extra sail times to secure heavy sour substitutes like Venezuelan crude.
- Nadia cites specific shifts from Japan and Thailand toward USGC barrels because Venezuelan heavy sour matches lost Iraqi grades.
China's Refined Product Export Ban Tightened Global Supply
- China imposed an early ban on refined product exports, removing a crucial source of spare refining capacity and intensifying diesel/gasoline tightness in Asia.
- Nadia notes China holds strategic product stocks and chose domestic priority, shifting global product balance toward shortages.