Barclays Brief AI: The macro game changer
10 snips
Jan 6, 2026 
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research who focuses on macro trends and markets. He argues AI is now the dominant force shaping the global economy. He contrasts AI’s impact with traditional drivers like labour and inflation. He flags risks around long-term yields, tech supply chains and AI hardware concentration. He outlines preferred positioning in US equities, big tech and selective commodities.
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AI Dominates The Macro Narrative
- AI will be the dominant macroeconomic force shaping the US and global economy in 2026.
- Equity gains in AI-sensitive firms are supporting consumption despite weak underlying fundamentals.
Equities, Not Jobs, Are Powering Consumption
- AI capex lifts business investment while AI-sensitive equity gains prop up US consumer spending.
- The broader economy remains weak, making growth dependent on the AI narrative and equity performance.
Tariffs Are Less Macro Critical
- Sectoral tariffs will likely get the US to a similar policy outcome even if the Supreme Court blocks IEPA tariffs.
- Tariff-driven goods inflation fears have faded and will be less central in 2026 than in 2025.