Hold Your Fire! Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela?
23 snips
Jan 5, 2026 
Phil Gunson, a senior Andes region analyst at the International Crisis Group, shares insights on Venezuela's political turmoil. He breaks down the U.S. military operation that led to Maduro's capture, discussing its chaotic execution and public reaction. Gunson explores Delcy Rodríguez's rise to power and potential U.S. oil-for-stability deals, emphasizing military preferences for stability over risk. He also highlights the opposition's struggles, internal power rivalries, and the grim humanitarian outlook for Venezuelans amidst ongoing tensions.
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Delcy Rodríguez Is A Regime Insider
- Delcy Rodríguez is a long-serving Chavista insider with diplomatic experience and family political ties.
- She and her brother Jorge have been central figures in foreign policy and electoral management.
Shift From Transaction To Military Pressure
- U.S. policy shifted from pragmatic transactional engagement to heavy military pressure under Trump.
- Plan B appears to have been to seize Maduro and then negotiate deals with remaining officials.
Opposition Sidelined By U.S. Calculus
- Trump publicly dismissed Maria Corina Machado's viability while sidelining opposition ambitions.
- The U.S. calculus favored a deal with regime insiders over installing opposition leaders lacking military support.