Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan, offers sharp macroeconomic perspective on the March jobs report. He discusses payroll rebounds and sector swings. He highlights slowing labor supply and greater payroll volatility. He flags early signs of AI reshaping employment and risks from higher energy prices, plus how the data could influence Fed policy.
08:20
forum Ask episode
web_stories AI Snips
view_agenda Chapters
auto_awesome Transcript
info_circle Episode notes
insights INSIGHT
March Jobs Rebound Was Largely A Statistical Bounce
The March payrolls rebound largely unwound February's weather and strike-driven weakness.
Construction, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare rebounded after February's storm and strike impacts, producing a 178,000 print that outpaced expectations.
insights INSIGHT
Two Month Average Better Reflects Underlying Hiring Pace
Averaging February and March gives a truer read of hiring, roughly matching the prior-year monthly average.
When February's -133,000 is combined with March's 178,000 the two-month average implies net hires near the 0–50,000 monthly pace seen over the past year.
insights INSIGHT
Slower Labor Supply Raises Odds Of Negative Payroll Prints
Labor supply growth has slowed due to demographics and tighter immigration, lowering the jobs needed to absorb entrants.
Feroli estimates the labor market now needs only about 0–50,000 new jobs per month to accommodate new entrants, increasing the chance of negative payroll reports from sampling noise.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
In this episode of Making Sense, Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan, joins Sam Azzarello, head of Content Strategy, to unpack the March jobs report and what it signals beneath the headline. They discuss the rebound in hiring after February’s data, early signs that AI may be reshaping the labor market, and what higher energy prices could mean for consumer momentum. The conversation closes with Feroli’s outlook on how the data may shape the Fed’s near-term policy stance and his base-case outlook for the U.S. economy.
This episode was recorded on April 3, 2026.
This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.
Making Sense