Brown Advisory CIO Perspectives

SaaSpocalypse, the AI Death Star and Private Credit Indigestion

Mar 5, 2026
Campbell Donley, CIO investment analyst who focuses on market concentration and quality investing, and Kif Hancock, International CIO with expertise in global markets and private markets, discuss the AI-driven sell‑off in software and payments. They parse panic versus fundamentals, why quality stocks have lagged, the K-shaped consumer and youth unemployment, international diversification opportunities, and stress in private credit tied to software exposure.
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INSIGHT

AI Threat Is Nuanced Not Universal

  • AI is creating deep uncertainty about which software business models are safe versus vulnerable to disruption.
  • Kif Hancock emphasizes that value often lies beyond code in distribution, data, and complex workflows, so disruption won’t be uniform.
INSIGHT

Software Selloff Driven By Future Uncertainty

  • Markets are broadly selling software based on future-risk fears, not current fundamentals.
  • Sid Ahl notes leaders like Microsoft and Intuit trade down despite healthy growth and margins, creating potential bargains.
ADVICE

Use Quality Screens To Find Durable Compounders

  • Focus quality investing on companies with predictable cash flows, high ROIC, and durable balance sheets.
  • Campbell Donley recommends using quality screens (e.g., S&P Quality) to identify firms that should compound over time.
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