Forward Guidance AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
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Mar 25, 2026 
Raoul Pal, macro investor and founder of Global Macro Investor, lays out big-picture shifts as AI, energy, crypto, and liquidity collide. He maps the US–China AI race, why energy and real assets constrain progress, how crypto rails and tokenized data will power AI agents, and what human value looks like amid rapid technological change.
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The AI Race Is Largely A Two Country Competition
- The AI arms race is effectively between two countries: the US and China, shaping global alignment and resource allocation.
- Raoul argues only the US and China matter, with Taiwan and raw materials as peripheral dependencies.
Use Banks To Deliver Liquidity Not Just Central Banks
- Prevent collateral collapses by ensuring liquidity returns quickly via the banking system rather than only central bank balance sheet expansion.
- Raoul notes policy shifts (ESLR changes) intend to route liquidity through banks so lending restarts instead of blunt money printing.
Software Selloff Was A Liquidity Story Not AI Doom
- Recent software stock weakness tracked Bitcoin-like liquidity dynamics, not immediate AI disruption.
- Raoul links both to shrinking US liquidity and long-duration nature of software assets pulling pricing down.