Run the Numbers

Zombie companies, ARR, and broken SaaS economics | Brett Queener

23 snips

Feb 5, 2026

Brett Queener, Managing Director at Bonfire Ventures and former Salesforce operator, walks through ARR’s history and how pricing models are shifting SaaS economics. He covers the move from annual contracts to outcome and usage pricing. He discusses AI-driven agentic products, forecasting without committed ARR, changing go‑to‑market and comp plans, and why low‑value SaaS players are at risk.

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ADVICE

Automate RevRec Before Pricing Complexity

Automate revenue recognition before shipping complex pricing models like usage or bundles.
Use systems that let product teams iterate pricing without breaking finance or month-end close.

INSIGHT

AI Turns Software Into Hired Labor

Agentic AI shifts buyer mindset from buying software to hiring a worker that does a job, collapsing old abstractions like ARR.
That clarity makes value measurable and enables outcome- or usage-based pricing tied to the job done.

INSIGHT

Talent Shifts Break Forecast Predictability

Forecasting becomes harder with fewer committed ARR buckets and rapidly evolving product roles.
Talent and role changes (fewer classic SDR/SE layers) are the biggest forecasting unknowns.

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