Forecasting without committed ARR

Brett explains forecasting challenges when recurring commitments decline and cash predictability shifts.

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In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Brett Queener, Managing Director at Bonfire Ventures, to trace the origins of ARR and examine how new revenue models are reshaping B2B software. Drawing on Brett’s time at Salesforce and SmartRecruiters, they explore the shift from annual contracts to outcome-based pricing, what it means for forecasting and gtm strategy, and where the next major inflection points in SaaS are likely to emerge.

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LINKS:

Brett on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettqueener/

Brett’s Substack: https://queener.substack.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

The Staffing Ratios Salesforce Used, with Brett Queener of Bonfire VC

https://youtu.be/lJVgstAXjJs

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:02:54 Welcome Brett & episode setup

00:03:51 On-prem software to SaaS