Louis Gave: China Won The Trade War? Sell NASDAQ, Buy Asia & Latin America

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Feb 19, 2026

Louis Gave, founding partner and CEO of GaveKal Research, is a macro investor focused on China, commodities, and currencies. He argues China built an energy edge and structurally benefited from the trade war. He explains why the yuan’s rise signals a policy shift. He discusses capital flows favoring Asia and emerging markets, and contrasts Asia with Latin America as investment opportunities.

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INSIGHT

Asia's Repatriation Fills The Deflation Hole

Asian currency appreciation and capital repatriation reverse a global deflationary force supplied by weak Asian currencies.
This shift can raise Western bond yields and undercut US growth/growth-stock leadership like NASDAQ.

ADVICE

Hedge Nasdaq, Redeploy To EM And Asia

Hedge the risk of NASDAQ weakness by buying NASDAQ puts if you fear a rotation to EM and value.
Redeploy proceeds into Korea, Japan, China, Latin America, and commodities benefitting from repatriation and rising rates.

ADVICE

Buying Asia Means Accepting China + Semi Risk

Buying a broad Asia index now gives heavy China, Korea and Taiwan exposure and is appropriate if you accept semiconductor risk.
Be aware the semiconductor portion is crowded and vulnerable despite short-term strength.

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GaveKal’s Louis-Vincent Gave argues the global market regime is already shifting, and most investors are positioned for the wrong world. His core thesis: economic power comes from energy, and China spent decades building the cheapest electricity base in the world while the West focused on asset prices instead of infrastructure.

Gave explains why Beijing believes it already “won” the trade war structurally, why the recent yuan move signals a policy turning point, and why capital flows may now favor Asia and emerging markets over U.S. growth trades.

If this macro shift continues, he says the biggest winners and losers of the next decade may look very different from the last.

💡Want help positioning for this market shift? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4asu7L7

💡Protect your wealth with real gold and silver through Hard Assets Alliance: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH

Chapters:

2:03 - The Biggest Misconception About China

5:39 - What China Bears Miss: Energy Is Destiny

9:28 - Can the West Catch Up, or Is China Structurally Ahead?

13:21 - The “Big Switch to Labor”: Is the Pivot Actually Possible?

17:00 - The Yuan Is Rising: Does It Keep Going?

25:14 - Xi’s Grip on Power: Purges, Echo Chambers, and Risk

30:43 - Can Beijing Pull Off a Stronger Yuan Without Breaking Things?

33:53 - Asia FX Dominoes: Who Moves With China, and What Happens Next?

37:28 - Orderly Rotation or Disorderly Breaks?

42:01 - Buy Asia Broadly, or Pick Your Spots?

44:16 - EM Currency Boom vs Deflation: What Wins Globally?

46:51 - Asia vs Latin America: Where’s the Better Trade?

51:54 - Lightning Round: The Most Important Chart on His Desk

52:36 - Does the U.S. Bond Market Break This Year?

53:17 - The Best Asian Currency Bet (Ex-China)

53:46 - One Commodity to Avoid

54:26 - The Biggest Geopolitical Blind Spot for Investors

56:16 - If You Could Own Only One Emerging Market for a Decade

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