Bonds, Best Asian Currency, and Commodity Caution

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GaveKal’s Louis-Vincent Gave argues the global market regime is already shifting, and most investors are positioned for the wrong world. His core thesis: economic power comes from energy, and China spent decades building the cheapest electricity base in the world while the West focused on asset prices instead of infrastructure. 

Gave explains why Beijing believes it already “won” the trade war structurally, why the recent yuan move signals a policy turning point, and why capital flows may now favor Asia and emerging markets over U.S. growth trades.  

If this macro shift continues, he says the biggest winners and losers of the next decade may look very different from the last.

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Chapters:

2:03 - The Biggest Misconception About China

5:39 - What China Bears Miss: Energy Is Destiny

9:28 - Can the West Catch Up, or Is China Structurally Ahead?

13:21 - The “Big Switch to Labor”: Is the Pivot Actually Possible?

17:00 - The Yuan Is Rising: Does It Keep Going?

25:14 - Xi’s Grip on Power: Purges, Echo Chambers, and Risk

30:43 - Can Beijing Pull Off a Stronger Yuan Without Breaking Things?

33:53 - Asia FX Dominoes: Who Moves With China, and What Happens Next?

37:28 - Orderly Rotation or Disorderly Breaks?

42:01 - Buy Asia Broadly, or Pick Your Spots?

44:16 - EM Currency Boom vs Deflation: What Wins Globally?

46:51 - Asia vs Latin America: Where’s the Better Trade?

51:54 - Lightning Round: The Most Important Chart on His Desk

52:36 - Does the U.S. Bond Market Break This Year?

53:17 - The Best Asian Currency Bet (Ex-China)

53:46 - One Commodity to Avoid

54:26 - The Biggest Geopolitical Blind Spot for Investors

56:16 - If You Could Own Only One Emerging Market for a Decade

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