The Numbers

How big of a polling cushion do the Liberals have?

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Apr 21, 2025
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INSIGHT

Liberals Maintain Polling Lead

  • Most recent federal polls show the Liberals leading by 5 to 8 points nationally, except Main Street Research which shows a tie.
  • This Liberal lead translates to a strong but slightly reduced polling advantage compared to earlier in the campaign.
INSIGHT

Liberal Majority Cushion Is Thin

  • The Liberals have an approximate 12 to 15 seat cushion for a majority, but this margin is delicate.
  • Slight improvements by opposition parties in key regions could reduce the Liberal seats to under majority threshold.
INSIGHT

Regional Support Shapes Majority Outcome

  • Strong Liberal leads in Ontario and solid leads in BC give them a majority advantage.
  • Bloc Québécois is gaining support in Quebec, which may cost Liberals some seats.
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