RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly*
23 snips
Dec 12, 2025 
Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, dives into the Federal Reserve's recent decisions and the complex communications surrounding them. He discusses how the January jobs report will influence potential rate cuts and the role of hawkish dissents in shaping policy. Nick also weighs in on upcoming Fed Chair succession and its implications for credibility. The conversation touches on labor market dynamics, emerging market strength in metals, and the limited Fed focus on cryptocurrencies. It's a rich exploration of monetary policy intricacies!
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Labor Market Shows Employer Leverage Rising
- Neil Dutta highlights falling quits and rising layoffs as signs employer leverage is increasing.
- He argues slowing wage growth would undermine the consumer-led bull case for the economy.
SEP May Underestimate Unemployment Risk
- Neil questions the Fed SEP's assumption of stable unemployment given recent trends and sector weaknesses.
- He thinks unemployment is likelier to rise than the SEP assumes, implying more cuts may be priced later.
Lower Rates Needed To Restart Housing
- Neil says mortgage rates likely need to reach high-4s or low-5s to revive housing demand.
- He warns that without those levels, widespread home-price declines are likely next year.
