NAB Morning Call Ratcheting Up
Apr 6, 2026
Taylor Nugent, markets economist at NAB Markets Research, offers concise analysis of rising US-Iran tensions and their implications. He breaks down why markets stayed calm despite escalatory rhetoric. He also discusses elevated oil prices and the impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Finally, he reviews surprising US payrolls and conflicting ISM services signals.
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Middle East Tensions Are Ratcheting Up
- Geopolitical rhetoric is escalating with threats from both the US and Iran over Middle East targets.
- Donald Trump warned of major strikes while Iran vowed to step up attacks on regional infrastructure and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Spot Oil Tightness Contrasts With Calmer Futures
- Oil prices rose and physical markets show scarcity despite futures pricing calming further out.
- Brent near $110 a barrel while dated/spot Brent reached around $140, signalling tightness in physical flows through Hormuz.
Hormuz Ship Transits Remain Severely Reduced
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels but some transits resumed.
- Bloomberg reported 21 ships transited over the weekend versus ~135 daily before the conflict, often Chinese or Iranian vessels.