The Indicator from Planet Money When will the Iran war hit food prices?
37 snips
May 6, 2026 
David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University who traces food from farm to table, breaks down how the Iran war could nudge grocery bills. He outlines fuel and fertilizer channels. He explains why price shocks lag months, which items (produce, dairy, meat, seafood) will move first, and how persistent those rises can be.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Food Economist Shops By Asking Produce Managers
- David Ortega says grocery trips are never quick for him because he talks to produce managers and asks where costs are building up.
- He uses in-store conversations to track cost pressures and real-time supply issues.
Diesel Price Spike Drives Food Cost Pressure
- Diesel is central to U.S. food costs and recent diesel prices have jumped about 50% since the war began.
- Diesel powers farm machinery and refrigerated trucking that moves perishables long distances, directly raising production and transport costs.
Fertilizer Disruption Threatens Future Yields
- Fertilizer markets are disrupted because Gulf states supply nitrogen fertilizer and LNG inputs and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked.
- Higher fertilizer prices can reduce application rates, lower yields at harvest, and push food prices up later.