The Trivium China Podcast Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China
Nov 8, 2025
Cory Combs, head of critical mineral research at Trivium China, sheds light on the complex landscape of rare earth export controls. He discusses discrepancies between US and Chinese statements about recent agreements, and how political messaging adds to the confusion. Cory explores the realistic timelines for the US to reduce reliance on China for rare earths, emphasizing the challenges in establishing new supply chains. He highlights the difficulties posed by regulatory factors and the need for government support in a capital-intensive industry.
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Episode notes
Dual‑Use Controls Are Non‑Negotiable
- China will very likely retain dual‑use restrictions; it's implausible they would permit exports to US military end users.
- Removing dual‑use controls would be a major policy shift China would announce, not quietly allow.
Suspension Likely Narrower Than Claimed
- There’s daylight between October 9 suspensions and earlier rare‑earth controls from April; heavies likely remain controlled.
- Expect the suspension to cover certain October measures, not a blanket rollback of all prior controls.
Light Vs. Heavy Rare Earths Timeline
- Light rare earth processing can be rebuilt faster; heavy rare earths are much harder and U.S. lacks experience.
- Expect heavy rare earth replacement to take substantially longer than light rare earths.
