NAB Morning Call Will he or won’t he?
Apr 7, 2026
Gavin Friend, markets economist at NAB, offers sharp market and macro commentary. He discusses global market calm despite Middle East escalation. He covers oil price moves, how markets price geopolitical risk, central bank outlooks including the Fed, ECB and RBNZ, and recent data like PMIs and Australian consumer spending.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Oil Spike And Mixed Currency Moves
- Oil moved notably with WTI up over 1% to nearly $118 while Brent oscillated around $112, reflecting regional risk and supply concerns.
- Despite oil's rise, the US dollar softened and the Aussie rose to about 69.6 US cents, showing mixed market flows.
Rhetoric Targeting Infrastructure To Avoid War Crime Claims
- White House rhetoric includes threats against infrastructure while claiming some targets are dual-use to avoid war crime labels.
- Gavin Friend highlighted US and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and Shiraz before the deadline.
Strait Of Hormuz Resolution Vetoed But Ships Still Crossing
- UN attempt to force open the Strait of Hormuz failed after China and Russia vetoed a resolution, limiting collective action.
- Shipping data showed 21 crossings over a weekend with no attacks, suggesting limited recent capability or will to strike vessels.